\nThe present study focuses on persistence in research productivity over the course of an individual\u2019s entire scientific career. We track \u201clate-career\u201d scientists\u2014scientists with at least 25 years of publishing experience (N<\/em>\u00a0= 320,564)\u2014in 16 STEMM (science, technology, engineering, mathematics, and medicine) and social science disciplines from 38 OECD countries for up to 5 decades. Our OECD sample includes 79.42% of late-career scientists globally. We examine the details of their mobility patterns as early-career, midcareer, and late-career scientists between decile-based productivity classes, from the bottom 10% to the top 10% of the productivity distribution. Methodologically, we turn a large-scale bibliometric data set (Scopus raw data) into a comprehensive, longitudinal data source for research on careers in science. The global science system is highly immobile: Half of global top performers continue their careers as top performers and one-third of global bottom performers as bottom performers. Jumpers-Up and Droppers-Down are extremely rare in science. The chances of moving radically up or down in productivity classes are marginal (1% or less). Our regression analyses show that productivity classes are highly path-dependent: There is a single most important predictor of being a top performer, which is being a top performer at an earlier career stage.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Marek Kwiek and Lukasz Szymula’s recent research on research productivity was featured in „Nature”. Huge analysis of 320,000 careers suggests that productive researchers stay that way Nature\u00a0652, 1415-1416 (2026) doi: https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/d41586-026-00744-0 The research featured in „Nature” is: Marek Kwiek,\u00a0Lukasz Szymula; Quantifying lifetime productivity changes: A longitudinal study of 320,000 late-career scientists.\u00a0Quantitative Science Studies\u00a02025; 6 1002\u20131038. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":4373,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[48,39],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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